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War
Footing
Regarding
the government's decision to place the country on a war-footing,
41% consider it a bad policy compared with 21% who think it
is a positive decision, while 9% say it makes no difference
and 19% say they do not know what to make of it.
Ethnic Conflict & Conflict Resolution
32%
of the Sri Lankan public believes that the most effective solution
to the ethnic conflict is peace talks with the LTTE with third
party mediation. A further 19% feel that peace talks with the
LTTE but without third party mediation is the best solution
to the ethnic conflict. With or without mediation, an overall
51% of the population place more confidence in a negotiated
settlement as opposed to 41% who believe that the most effective
solution is a military victory. Another 11% opt for a combination
of peace talks along with military pressure, while 6% have no
hope for any solution at all (See Graph 2).
These figures, however, are more meaningful in the light of
the variance of opinion on this topic between ethnic communities
and the proximity of respondents to the military front lines.
While 49% of Sinhalese claim a military victory would prove
the most effective solution to the ethnic conflict, the majority
of Tamils and Muslims opt for peace talks, with or without third
party mediation (See Graph 3). Those closest to the war-front
are less inclined towards a military solution in comparison
to those living in areas further removed from the war-front.
Ethnic Conflict - External Factors
42%
of the public believes that some foreign governments are sympathetic
towards the Sri Lankan government, while 58% believe that certain
foreign governments are sympathetic towards the LTTE. Based
on ethnic community, 61% of Sinhalese, 42% of Tamils and 41%
of Muslims believe that foreign governments are sympathetic
towards the LTTE. Of those who believe that foreign governments
are sympathetic towards the LTTE, 24% name India, 20% Canada,
14% Britain, 10% the United States and 7% Norway as the specific
governments viewed as sympathetic towards the LTTE (See Graph
4).
An overwhelming majority (83%) believes that this sympathy allows
the LTTE to collect funds from various sources within those
countries. However, while 89% of Sinhalese believe this sympathy
contributes towards the LTTE's funding, only 37% of Tamils and
46% of Muslims share this view. While 38% claim that the LTTE's
survival is dependent on financial support from abroad, this
is, once again, an opinion that is not shared by all ethnic
communities in equal measure. 43% of Sinhalese, compared to
9% and 16% of Tamils and Muslims respectively, believe the LTTE
depend on this financial support for its survival, while 52%
of Tamils and 30% of Muslims claim they are uncertain about
this. Further, while the majority of those close to the military
front line are unsure about making such a claim, 40% of those
in other areas are able to state a definite belief that the
LTTE depend on financial support from abroad for its survival.
While
India is considered the country that is overall most sympathetic
towards the LTTE, it is also the country selected by 27% as
the external actor (i.e. country or international organisation)
most suited to assist in peace talks. The UN runs a close second
at 24%, followed by 12% identifying the US and 10% Norway (See
Graph 5).
Conscription
When
asked if the public is likely to support conscription if introduced
by the government, 43% claim they will support it, compared
to 32% who claim they will not. This is an opposing view to
that of those in the areas close to the zone of armed conflict,
53% of whom state that they will not support such a law, compared
to 21% who say they will. Favouring conscription is not evidenced
within the Muslim and Tamil communities. Although 52% of Sinhalese
say they will support a law regarding conscription, 49% of Muslims
and an overwhelming 79% of Tamils say they will not (See
Graph 6). While 45% of those in rural areas say they will
favour conscription if introduced by the government as opposed
to 31% who say they will not, 40% of those in urban areas are
against the introduction of conscription as opposed to 29% who
are in favour.
Constitutional Reforms
Surveyed
in the wake of the debate over the proposed new constitution,
43% state that there was not enough public participation in
the drafting of the proposed constitution. Only 11% think there
was sufficient participation, while 45% are uncertain.
Conduct of politicians
A
majority of those surveyed (58%) disapprove of MPs crossing
over from one party to another, as opposed to 16% who do not
have a problem with it (See Graph 7). When asked if it
was important for politicians to be honest in their financial
dealings, 63% were uncertain, while 16% refused to answer the
question. Only 10% state that politicians should be financially
honest, and 11% say it is not important for politicians to do
so.
Elections - corruption and malpractice
Of
the 922 respondents willing to disclose whether or not they
will vote at the forthcoming general elections, 95% say they
will definitely vote, while 4% are as yet undecided, and only
1% state they will not be casting their vote.
Expectations
for a free and fair election do not seem to be high. Only 23%
expect the forthcoming elections to be free and fair, lower
than the 27% who thought the 1999 presidential elections were
conducted freely and fairly. While 25% think the 1999 presidential
elections were not free and fair and 25% are not sure, 18% do
not expect the coming elections to be free and fair and 59%
are uncertain (See Graph 8).
Continuing in this vein, only a mere 9% expect the elections
to be free of corruption and malpractice, while 36% say there
will be corruption and malpractice and 50% are uncertain (See
Graph 9).
Likewise, 45% expect the occurrence of election-related violence,
compared to just 7% who do not (See Graph 10).
Meanwhile, 31% say they are either very satisfied or somewhat
satisfied with the performance of the Police, as opposed to
24% who are not. The performance of the Election Commissioner
is also looked upon relatively favourably, with 14% saying they
are very satisfied with his performance, and 20% saying they
are somewhat satisfied (See Graph 11).
However, given the general lack of confidence in a clean election,
it is not surprising that 71% believe that the elections should
be monitored. 38% believe foreign observers should monitor the
election, and 25% state that local, independent monitors should
do the job (See Graph 12).
The
above results are findings from a recent opinion poll of 1008
respondents conducted by Social Indicator, from September 1-14,
2000. Social Indicator, the polling unit of the Centre for Policy
Alternatives, is committed to conducting opinion polls as a
means of providing a channel through which the public, especially
marginalized groups can express their views. The organization
is funded by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA)
under the Governance and Institutional Strengthening Program,
Sri Lanka, of the Human Rights Research and Education Centre,
University of Ottawa, Canada. This survey was partly funded
by the Sri Lanka chapter of Transparency International.
Dr. P. Saravanamuttu
Executive Director
CPA |
Pradeep Peiris
Project Coordinator
Social Indicator
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